Ye vs. Taylor? Here We Go Again on Next Week’s Billboard 200  (2024)

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Aug. 10, Ye looks for his 12th consecutive charting album to debut at No. 1 – but he’ll have to get past a familiar longtime foe first.

Ye & Ty Dolla $ign, Vultures 2 (YZY): We must be nearing the 15th anniversary of the 2009 MTV Video Music Awards, because Ye (formerly Kanye West) and Taylor Swift are mixing it up again. This time, it’s not particularly personal: Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has been the album to beat on the Billboard 200 for over three months now, and Ye & Ty’s typically long-expected and long-delayed sequel set Vultures 2, originally set for March, finally saw release last Saturday (Aug. 3), after being announced for the day before.

Nevertheless, the race is now on, and Ye and Ty are in it to win it. As is typical of last-second new Ye releases of the past decade, Vultures 2 is not available for physical purchase upon its release – it is available only in digital format, on iTunes and Amazon and at his webstore, and is currently being sold for just $5. Late on Tuesday night (Aug. 6), Ye released a new deluxe edition to the album as a webstore exclusive, featuring a new song currently not available on streaming, “Take Off Your Dress.”

Given these maneuvers and Ye’s history on the chart, Vultures 2 would seem a likely frontrunner for the No. 1 spot. However, the set’s performance on streaming has not been equivalent to the dominance of his and Ty’s first Vultures: On Apple Music, the album only claims three of the top 50 spots, and it only has a single entry in that range on Spotify: “Field Trip,” which appears to be the closest thing to a breakout hit on the album – and still nowhere near a threat to debut atop the Billboard Hot 100 like runaway smash “Carnival” did off the preceding set. Add to that some middling notices from fans and critics, many of whom have deemed the album unfinished-sounding, as well as a partial first tracking week (thanks to the delayed Saturday release), and Vultures 2 is fighting an uphill battle to claim the 200’s top spot this week.

Still, with “Take Off Your Dress” drawing a highly positive fan response so far, the new deluxe edition of the album should help its numbers a decent amount. And the bar has been lower to clear with Tortured Poets in the last couple weeks than it was in the first few months – Swift’s album reigned last week with just 71,000 total units, the lowest total for a No. 1 album on the chart since March.

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): It’s been a lucky 13 weeks now for Taylor Swift’s massive blockbuster atop the Billboard 200, as the set returned to the top spot in a slow release week after having bequeathed it to Eminem (The Death of Slim Shady) and Stray Kids (ATE), respectively, in the two prior frames. The album has already set a career-best mark for Swift, though it still has a way to go to match the 19 weeks notched by Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time for the longest-reigning No. 1 album of the decade.

Swift doesn’t appear to be giving up the fight just yet. She introduced a new digital variant of the album on her webstore over the weekend, with an exclusive bonus track: “My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys (First Draft Voice Memo).” (At the same time, she re-released three of her previously available digital variants, each of which had a different first draft voice memo as their own exclusive bonus track.) She also held a sale on Aug. 4 where 16 previously available physical variants of the album (across CD, cassette and vinyl) were discounted by 13% — presumably in tribute to the album’s new landmark number of weeks ruling the chart – while also restocking the signed CD edition of the album on her webstore, which (as usual) quickly sold out.

If totals between Ye and Swift remain tight through these final two days of the tracking week, there may likely be more reissues and releases to come on both sides, as the two historic rivals look to gain an edge in one of pop’s preeminent battlefields.

Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusem*nt/Island/Republic): Don’t forget about the Midwest Princess! While Roan’s debut album is now nearly 10 months old, it continues to gain in overall momentum – climbing to a new peak of No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, as five of its tracks continue to slowly ascend the Hot 100. The ubiquitous Roan has also benefitted from additional headlines and exposure following her historically well-attended late-afternoon Lollapalooza set on Thursday, and even from the announcement of Minnesota governor and Nebraska native Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’ running mate – with many pop fans dubbing him the “Midwest Prince(ss)” to Harris’ Brat, and even seeing parallels between their campaign hats with Roan’s own merch.

Rise and Fall was still well behind Tortured Poets this week in terms of overall units – 53,000 to 71,000, with the former actually dipping a little from the previous week, despite the chart gain – so it’s unlikely to bridge that gap in one or even a couple weeks. However, given the unstoppable growth of the album over the past four months, it seems practically inevitable that it will be a true contender for the top spot before long – particularly if Roan ever releases any kind of physical reissue or deluxe edition for the well-loved set.

Charli XCX, Brat (Atlantic/AG): And of course, you can’t talk about Midwest Princess this summer without mentioning its across-the-pond counterpart. While Brat has also been gradually gaining in public awareness throughout the warm-weather months – with breakout hits “360” and “Apple” bounding up the Hot 100 — this week it gets a particularly notable adrenaline shot: the release of a new Billie Eilish-featuring remix to Brat bonus cut “Guess,” which also received an extended rollout over the past week, including an eye-popping music video.

The “Guess” remix, which topped both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and YouTube’s Trending Music charts on Friday in its first full day of release, looks poised to become Charli’s biggest Hot 100 hit of the whole Brat era. It should give the album a major boost on the chart this week — though posing a true challenge to Swift’s juggernaut may also still be too lofty a goal for it at the moment.